//
Shamsul Basunia //
No
sitting power lord could able to stay in power using his or her muscle keeping
aside the popular support of the mass people.
Assad governs less than
a
third of the country, and has a small army and security
apparatus. More than 12 million Syrians have
been displaced, while five million
have fled the country.
There
is nothing left of the elements of a state.
Assad stays among tombs, as he
confronts thousands of rebels.
On the practical level, as
a ruler he exists only in
the statements
of
his allies.
Syria
has granted Assad a chance to
stay. The Russians are all he has
left. He has unsuccessfully
used
his security forces
and
thugs.
Assad
then resorted to the Lebanese party Hezbollah,
which has extensive experience in militia
warfare. That also failed. Then the
Iranians
came to his aid but failed.
Assad also resorted to Iraqi and
Afghani
militias, without
achieving
progress
on
the ground.
Russia
then got involved with its air force
and
missiles, but the result has been
no
better. This week, Russian
operations
focused on
Latakia, which until
recently
was a safe
zone for Assad.
He is not worth
the
price being
paid
by his allies
and the Syrian
people,
and
contrary
to
what
he and
his supporters
think, there
is
no hope
of him
staying.
Even
the Iranians, who are the most keen
to keep Assad in power, are aware
of
the impossibility of him
staying.
However, they
want to control the
course
of negotiations
and decide the fate
of
future governance
in Syria.
They
want to assign another
Assad,
a leader who will
follow
their orders so
they can dominate
a
strategic geographic
area from Iraq to
Syria and Lebanon,
and besiege
the Gulf.
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